Expectations, Learning, and Business Cycle Fluctuations
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
Expectations Formation and Business Cycle Fluctuations: An Empirical Analysis of Actual and Expected Output in UK
Direct measures of expectations, derived from survey data, are used in a Vector Autoregressive model of actual and expected output in eight industries in the UK manufacturing sector. No evidence is found with which to reject rationality in the expectations series when measurement error is appropriately taken into account. The VAR analysis illustrates the importance of intersectoral interactions...
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It is often argued that changes in expectation are an important driving force of the business cycle. However, it is well known that changes in expectations cannot generate positive co-movement between consumption, investment and employment in the most standard neo-classical business cycle models. This gives rise to the question of whether changes in expectation can cause business cycle fluctuat...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: American Economic Review
سال: 2011
ISSN: 0002-8282
DOI: 10.1257/aer.101.6.2844